A critical crude oil pipeline in Nigeria’s Rivers State exploded early on Tuesday, threatening significant disruptions to the country’s oil exports, and potential revenue losses of up to $440m per month.
Brent crude is currently priced around $71.45 per barrel, indicating that Nigeria could lose roughly $14m daily if the disruption persists.
“Between 190,000 and 245,000 barrels of crude pass through that pipeline daily,” an oil worker told The Africa Report, adding it was too soon to fully assess damage as the fire had yet to be extinguished.
Authorities have not yet confirmed the cause and no group has claimed responsibility.
The Trans-Niger Pipeline transports between 190,000 and 245,000 barrels of crude oil and condensates daily from Bayelsa and Rivers states to the Bonny export terminal — the second-largest in Nigeria after Forcados.
Political tensions in Rivers State
The explosion occurs against the backdrop of escalating political tensions in river state the heartland of Nigeria’s oil-producing Niger Delta region. Governor Sim Fubara, who assumed office in May 2023, is locked in a bitter power struggle with his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, currently a minister in President Tinubu’s cabinet.
Attacks on oil pipelines have often been used as leverage by political factions and militant groups
The state parliament, influenced by Wike, recently issued an impeachment notice to Fubara, buoyed by a Supreme Court decision that empowered the federal government to freeze funds. Fubara, an ethnic Ijaw, maintains strong support among his community, which has threatened attacks on oil infrastructure if he is removed. Wike, however, dismissed these threats, asserting “the heavens will not fall”. Sources report that several political leaders have urged President Tinubu to rein in Wike. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu has reportedly been tasked with preventing escalation. However, the impartiality of federal intervention has been questioned following the visible presence of Ojukaye Flag-Amachree, director of energy security, at a recent rally supporting Wike.
Niger Delta security implications
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The Niger Delta has historically witnessed frequent attacks on oil infrastructure amid political unrest. The Africa Report recently reported on oil major. shell’s security advisoreis to its’s staff highlighting concerns over possible violence amid the current crisis.
Nigeria’s crude oil production currently stands at approximately 1.465 million barrels per day, short of President Tinubu’s ambitious target of 2.2 million barrels per day outlined in the 2025 budget. Nigeria remains heavily dependent on oil, deriving over 80% of its foreign exchange from crude exports. Aliko Dangote’ s new $20bn refinery is also keenly seeking oil as feedstock, both at home and abroad.
The federal government’s response to this latest explosion and the wider Rivers State crisis could significantly influence Nigeria’s economic stability and attractiveness to international investors
The country, already grappling with severe economic challenges and a currency devaluation exceeding 70% between 2023 and 2024, is eager to attract investment in its oil sector. However, major oil companies have increasingly divested from onshore assets, shifting towards deep offshore projects due to persistent security threats and community conflicts.
Attacks on oil pipelines have often been used as leverage by political factions and militant groups. During the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari, the Niger Delta Avengers carried out around 50 attacks on pipelines and oil facilities, underscoring the region’s ongoing volatility.
The federal government’s response to this latest explosion and the wider Rivers State crisis could significantly influence Nigeria’s economic stability and attractiveness to international investors.
